Trump-Erdogan meeting: F-35s, Russian gas and an Israel headache

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be emboldened ahead of a meeting with his "friend" US President Donald Trump on Thursday, but Israel, Russia's gas and a feisty Congress could still raise some roadblocks on an otherwise friendly path.

"Turkey's geopolitical vision fits with the Trump administration's vision of delegating responsibility to allies in the region. There is a convergence of interests," Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow for the Syria Project in the Atlantic Council, told Middle East Eye.

Nowhere is that more obvious than in Syria, where Trump has swiftly lifted sanctions and is trying to extricate US troops while Turkey and Arab Gulf states step in.

Erdogan's partner in Syria, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been well received in plush conferences hosted by think tanks and the former head of the CIA at the UN General Assembly in New York this week.

In a sign of Ankara's rising influence in Syria, Turkey began training security forces there earlier this month. Saudi Arabian and Qatari cash for energy and government salaries is working alongside Turkish manpower.

US support for the Kurdish led-Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has long been a thorn in the side of the US-Turkey relationship. Ankara considers the group an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). That is the very foundation of US involvement in Syria that Trump is trying to end.

The US is pressuring the SDF give up the autonomy it earned while fighting against the Islamic State (IS) group and integrate into the Syrian army.

Sharaa has come under some scrutiny for failing to respond to violence against Christians, and the Kurds' reluctance to cede to Damascus has been reinforced by atrocities committed against Alawites and Druze by forces loyal to Sharaa.

But the US isn't changing course, experts say.

'Little daylight on Syria'

Earlier this month, MEE reported on senior US foreign service officers, who were viewed as accommodating to the SDF, being reassigned from Istanbul to Washington.

"The US and Turkey are very closely aligned on Syria," Ambassador James Jeffrey, a former special envoy to Syria under Trump, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE.

"There is very little daylight between the US, Turkey and Damascus that integration needs to start soon," he added.

'The Turks are frustrated [with Israel], but they are also patient'

- James Jeffrey, fmr. US ambassador

The standard bearer for the Trump administration's pro-Turkish tilt on Syria is Ambassador Tom Barrack, the billionaire real estate developer and Trump confidante who is ambassador to Turkey and de facto envoy to the Levant region.

In lengthy and revealing press conferences, he has often spoken fondly of the Ottoman Empire.

Some experts, however, say that on Syria, the Trump administration has been a lot of talk and no concrete action from Ankara's point of view.

"Barrack's talking points on Syria match Turkey's talking points, but what has materialised practically speaking for Ankara on the SDF?" Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey programme at the Middle East Institute, told MEE.

But the biggest headache for Turkey in Syria right now is coming from the south, not the north. Trump has stood by while Israel pummels Syria at will, even as Damascus engages in unprecedented direct US-brokered security talks with Israel.

Current and former US officials confirmed to MEE that as part of a security deal with Syria, Israel wants a far-reaching zone of influence stretching from the occupied Golan Heights right up to the outskirts of Damascus.

Israel's dictating of Syrian military deployments there has riled Turkey and powerful Gulf states.

Israel already occupies Mount Hermon, a strategic high-ground in the area, and in a sign it is looking to stay, Reuters reported that Syria is arming and training Druze fighters there.

The US pushed Israel and Turkey into deconfliction talks in Syria earlier this year, but Trump has done little to constrain Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu there, who experts say is undermining Trump's own stated goal for a centralised Syria as opposed to a country segmented into federal zones.

Erdogan made no secret of his loathing for Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly, where he displayed photographs of starving Palestinians and slammed Israel for the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

'Israel is the biggest headache'

"If you count Syria and Gaza together, Israel is the biggest headache in the bilateral relationship," Ozkizilcik, at the Atlantic Council, told MEE.

Of course, Turkey has been supportive of security talks between Sharaa's government and Israel, which were originally hosted by Ankara's closest ally, Azerbaijan, before the US made them public.

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"Do the Israelis have limits on Syrian military deployments? Yes. The Turks are concerned about that, but it's not a major issue. The Turks are frustrated, but they are also patient," Jeffrey said.

Tom Barrack himself has said that Sharaa can't sign onto the Abraham Accords because he is backed by "Sunni fundamentalists", but the Syrian leader hinted in New York City that a security agreement could be close.

"If things are moving forward on an agreement, we may assume Turkey is supporting [that]," Ozkizilcik added.

The bigger obstacle to Erdogan's meeting with Trump is likely to be domestic US politics, which could hamper Turkey's hopes of buying advanced F-35 fighter jets and smoothing over broader defence industry ties.

Can Erdogan get F-35s?

Before the meeting, Turkey announced it was dropping some tariffs on US imports and leaked that it was planning to purchase hundreds of Boeing airliners and Lockheed Martin jets.

"Erdogan understands Trump's style of diplomacy perfectly," a regional official tracking the meeting told MEE. "Trump could agree to anything for the right price."

Sinan Ulgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, told MEE that "Erdogan is coming with a package of goods for Trump… in return, Erdogan wants Trump on the same page as Turkey about a return to the F-35 programme".

'So much of this is about Greece. Why does Erdogan want the F-35? Because Greece has it'

- Aaron Stein, Foreign Policy Research Institute

Turkey never operated the F-35, but was expelled from a co-production programme in 2019 after it purchased the Russian S-400 air defence system. 

Congress has already gotten angry at Turkey over several incursions into Syria and violations of Greek airspace.

In 2020, it included an amendment in a defence bill that banned Turkey from receiving the F-35 unless the president certifies that Turkey no longer possess the S-400.

Additionally, Turkey was slapped with CAATSA sanctions that have stifled defence cooperation between the US and Turkey's Defence Procurement Agency.

Both Trump and Erdogan have struck an optimistic tone on the F-35. But Tol, at the Middle East Institute, said Trump faces "a very tough sell. He needs to have Congress's cooperation".

The language barring Turkey from receiving F-35s in the National Defence Authorization Act, or NDAA, is particularly strict, experts say.

"None of the factors that led to Turkey's ouster from the F-35 programme have changed," Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told MEE.

"The only realistic way forward on the F-35 is with a compromise on the S-400. Turkey has to make a compromise and then Trump has to ask Congress," Stein said.

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One of the potential compromises would be Turkey keeping the S-400 in a warehouse and not activating it, which it is doing at the moment, but allowing Nato inspectors to continuously confirm that.

Turkey has resisted sending the S-400 to a third country.

The US's regional allies also oppose the sale.

MEE reported that Netanyahu personally lobbied US Secretary of State Marco Rubio against the sale this spring.

Meanwhile, dozens of US lawmakers have said they oppose any sale, partly over Turkey's rivalry with Greece.

Greece enjoys close ties with Israel and has positioned itself as an alternative to Turkey for the US with military bases and facilities to receive liquified natural gas. Greece has signed a deal to purchase 20 F-35's and has the option to purchase 20 more - the total of what Turkey is asking to buy.

"The Greek and Israeli lobbying entities have been very active in preparation for this meeting," Stein said. "So much of this is about Greece. Why does Erdogan want the F-35? Because Greece has it."

Still, Stein said that Lockheed Martin is in need of big orders for the F-35, particularly in the coming decades as the US moves to the sixth generation Boeing B-47 Fighter Jet.

"The really big customers for F-35s are Turkey, the UAE and Saudi Arabia," he said. "Trump wants nothing more than to sell F-35s to Turkey. I assume he would go against the Israelis. Forty jets is a big order."

A former senior US official told MEE that regardless of progress on the F-35s, they expect Trump and Erdogan to make progress on defence cooperation, including the export of drone technology.

Russian gas vs American LNG

Turkey has become a leader in drone production and is supplying Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine. Trump has oscillated in support for Ukraine and surprised diplomats this week when he said that Ukraine could take back all the territory Russia has conquered since its 2022 invasion, with the support of Nato and the EU.

Trump also called out European and Nato countries that are buying Russian gas and oil. He has called for the European Union to join the US in agreeing to 100 percent tariffs on countries buying Russian energy.

That could put Turkey in the crosshairs.

In 2024, Turkey received 41 percent of its gas imports from Russia. The gas has come in the form of favourable payment options that Turkey is using to power its manufacturing sector and offset double digit inflation. Turkey has positioned the TurkStream Pipeline as Russia's backdoor into European markets amid sanctions.

"If Trump really tries to squeeze Russia financially on the energy front, he will have to look at Turkey," Tol said.

US officials have been lobbying Turkey to purchase more US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) since the war in Ukraine with mixed success. Turkey announced on Wednesday a 20-year supply agreement to buy more US LNG.

Two former US officials told MEE that Trump plans to discuss nuclear power and mineral deals with Erdogan as well.

"Turkey is going in the right direction on energy," Jeffrey said. "But the gas purchases are pipeline-based, long-term contracts. The Turks can't just cut it cold."